We are face a serious that RMB will be increased value soon, it seems confirmed, as US's financial header will visit China end of April, China get much pressure and will make some concession, will loose a little at RMB exchange rate.
Now, let us to see what result will fall our head once RMB value increase further more.
In China stock market, many investors are from foreign finance organizations, it called QFII, they make much benefit in 2008, peak position of bull market. The index is 6400 at that time, and adjust 2 years, it now around 3000.
For property, it is always on bull, just a little down in 2009 which economy crisis happened in US, and it affect China, but now, the price is cover 2009's peak.
Why? Cause China's policy is stable for property, so, stock capital makes benefit and escape to property. And another side, property developers hold house, sell small, and speculate property, some speculators follow up to buy many house, and hold for more higher price, then transfer to another one for speculation.
Where is money from for the speculators and property developers? Bank is their background, they keep a good relation ship with them. Why they could keep a good relation ship with bank? Bribe the bank in charger, and get the loan from bank on their speculation stock, property. But common people couldn't make loan from bank, as they don't have relation and something could be mortgage. So, rich becomes richer, poor becomes poorer.
Domino effect
After RMB value goes up, the foreign capital will make sucessful and escape from China. At the time, China government has to sell USD and buy RMB from foreign finance organizations, then, so much RMB current in market, and will make goods price up. Stock market index will goes down as short money, and property will collapse due to capital broken.
The lastest result will be for Chinese: RMB value goes up for foreign and down for inside, and will make turmoil in society!
Care and Care, don't be the victim at the exchange rate reform!
2010年4月10日星期六
2010年4月8日星期四
RMB value up for oversea, but down buy power inside
From news, we are pressed from US and Eur, RMB must increase value for outside countries, that's say, RMB goes up against US Dollars.
How do we think this problem?
In 2002, RMB against US$ is 8.2:1, workers in The pearl river delta get about RMB400~800 a month. Rice is RMB 2.0/Kg, pork is RMB10/Kg, Rent for about 15 square meter house is around RMB100. At that time, I could get RMB 600 a month, and save RMB 300 a month. Not high salary, but could foster myself.
2008, the value increase is very sharply, from 8.0:1 to 6.8:1, so many factories lost money in foreign trade, especial household applicance, no money earned, some times lost, but government still make policy for RMB goes up stable, as so much pressure from US and Eur. Meanwhile, workers salary is around RMB 1000 a month, and office sir or lady is around RMB 2500 a month. That see the live level. Rice goes up RMB 5/kg, pork is RMB 30/kg, Rent is RMB 250 for 15 square meter house. The appearance is: worker get more wealth and higher salary than before. 6 years, our salary goes up one time, but the currency buy power lower 3 time than before.
Economy Crisis happened in 2008, so many factories closed, as they lost money in value up for foreign trade, and meet economy crisis, I also lost my job at that time.
Now, let us to analyze any good for us if RMB value up.
1. Firstly, it is not good news for foreign trade company and the factories whose market is in US or Eur. Some parts of product need import from outside country, but RMB value up don't make product cost down, as those parts occupied rate small in the product, and oversea buyers' purchasing cost get higher, it will make sold Qty lower. So, much more less money earned in China for factory or company.
2. Second, value goes up don't bring any good news directly for people, they don't share the value up brings buy power up, so, it should be: value up for outside country and down for inside people
3.More and more big event happend in society, government's authority is getting down, we could feel that RMB is inflating, you could feel that so many big money (100) used and less small value, if you don't feel, have a try to take city buy. Everyone take out is one piece RMB 100, but no small value to change.
Back to the topic, if our salary goes up same or above the value up, I think, there is no bad for us, but value goes up for outside and down value inside, how do we live with so less money.
If government could make more wealth for people from value goes up, we welcome the policy, it not, why we must make value go up?
How do we think this problem?
In 2002, RMB against US$ is 8.2:1, workers in The pearl river delta get about RMB400~800 a month. Rice is RMB 2.0/Kg, pork is RMB10/Kg, Rent for about 15 square meter house is around RMB100. At that time, I could get RMB 600 a month, and save RMB 300 a month. Not high salary, but could foster myself.
2008, the value increase is very sharply, from 8.0:1 to 6.8:1, so many factories lost money in foreign trade, especial household applicance, no money earned, some times lost, but government still make policy for RMB goes up stable, as so much pressure from US and Eur. Meanwhile, workers salary is around RMB 1000 a month, and office sir or lady is around RMB 2500 a month. That see the live level. Rice goes up RMB 5/kg, pork is RMB 30/kg, Rent is RMB 250 for 15 square meter house. The appearance is: worker get more wealth and higher salary than before. 6 years, our salary goes up one time, but the currency buy power lower 3 time than before.
Economy Crisis happened in 2008, so many factories closed, as they lost money in value up for foreign trade, and meet economy crisis, I also lost my job at that time.
Now, let us to analyze any good for us if RMB value up.
1. Firstly, it is not good news for foreign trade company and the factories whose market is in US or Eur. Some parts of product need import from outside country, but RMB value up don't make product cost down, as those parts occupied rate small in the product, and oversea buyers' purchasing cost get higher, it will make sold Qty lower. So, much more less money earned in China for factory or company.
2. Second, value goes up don't bring any good news directly for people, they don't share the value up brings buy power up, so, it should be: value up for outside country and down for inside people
3.More and more big event happend in society, government's authority is getting down, we could feel that RMB is inflating, you could feel that so many big money (100) used and less small value, if you don't feel, have a try to take city buy. Everyone take out is one piece RMB 100, but no small value to change.
Back to the topic, if our salary goes up same or above the value up, I think, there is no bad for us, but value goes up for outside and down value inside, how do we live with so less money.
If government could make more wealth for people from value goes up, we welcome the policy, it not, why we must make value go up?
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